Dr. Ted Postol’s Analysis: Iran is winning this war.

5 March 2026, by Eric Zuesse. (All of my recent articles can be seen here.)

The legendary MIT weapons-scientist Ted Postol, who has always been the best to penetrate through to and analyze the actual evidences in America’s many wars — never the propaganda from the empire’s permanent-war regime — is right now concluding that most of Iran’s missiles are hitting their targets (“The intercept rate is extremely low”; later he said the intercept rate is “well below 5%”*), and furthermore, that Iran has many missiles underground that the U.S. and Israel never knew were there — they suddenly pop up from under sand dunes, where no launcher has previously been visible; and at least in Israel, they are hitting their targets; and, now — which was not previously the case (such as in the Amer-Israel invasion of Iran during June 2026 — their flight is being accompanied by dozens of decoys, so that even more of the actual warheads are getting through than had been the case in June.

“MIT Prof Ted Postol: U.S. Iran Missile War”

Daniel Davis / Deep Dive, 5 March 2026

I won’t provide anything here from the transcript, because the video presents his analysis of what the video clips are showing; so, in this case, a mere transcript won’t do. However, I should also point out that Postol’s analysis of the incoming evidences is exactly the kind of outcome that was yesterday uploaded to youtube by a group of students and other followers of Prof. Jiang Xueqin, founder of “Predictive History,” who has a remarkably successful record of having his predictions come true. So, here that explanation of what Dr. Postol is finding:

“The Iran-USA-Israel War: Why The Interceptor Math Already Decided Everything”

When Money Failed, 4 March 2026

0:00

Okay, so everyone right now is

0:02

celebrating the killing of Ali Khamenei. They

0:05

think regime change is happening. They

0:07

think decapitating Iran’s leadership

0:09

means the war is won. But here’s what

0:11

nobody wants to tell you. The war was

0:13

already lost before the first bomb

0:15

dropped. And the reason has nothing to

0:17

do with leadership or ideology or

0:19

military strategy. It’s math. Pure

0:22

brutal economics. Let me explain. On

0:25

February 28th, the United States and

0:27

Israel launched what they’re calling

0:29

Operation Epic Fury. The goal, regime

0:32

change in Iran. They’ve conducted over

0:33

2,000 air strikes. They killed Khamenei.

0:36

They destroyed IRGC facilities. And

0:38

everyone in Washington and Tel Aviv is

0:40

talking about victory. But here’s the

0:42

problem. While they were celebrating,

0:44

Iran launched over 1,000 ballistic

0:46

missiles and drones at Israel and US

0:48

allies across the Gulf. And this is

0:50

where the math becomes catastrophic.

0:52

Israel’s Arrow system interceptors cost

0:55

roughly $80,000 each. American THAAD

0:58

interceptors cost between $12 million

1:00

and $13 million per unit. Iranian

1:04

ballistic missiles about $100,000 to

1:06

produce. Now, you might think, okay, the

1:08

Arrow is comparable, but look at THAAD.

1:11

You’re spending $13 million to stop a

1:14

$100,000 missile. And here’s the

1:16

asymmetry that matters most. Iran is

1:19

producing over 100 ballistic missiles

1:21

per month. The United States and Israel

1:24

combined can produce six to seven

1:26

interceptors per month. Does that make

1:28

sense? Iran launches 100, you can

1:30

replace seven. This is not a sustainable

1:32

equation. This is economic suicide. And

1:35

it gets worse. In the 12-day war last

1:37

June, the United States burned through

1:39

20 to 25% of its entire THAAD

1:42

interceptor stockpile. That was 12 days.

1:45

We’re now on day five of this war. And

1:47

according to CNN, at least one Gulf ally

1:49

is already running low on interceptors

1:52

and urgently requesting resupply from

1:54

the United States. The Wall Street

1:55

Journal reports Israel may need to start

1:58

rationing its Arrow interceptors by the

2:00

end of this week. The system is already

2:02

overwhelmed. So what happens when you

2:04

run out of interceptors? Iranian

2:06

missiles start getting through and

2:08

they’re not targeting empty desert bases

2:10

anymore. They’re hitting Dubai’s Palm

2:12

JRA. They’re striking airports in Kuwait

2:15

and Qatar. They hit the US embassy in

2:17

Riyadh. They’ve attacked Saudi Aramco’s

2:19

Ros Tanura refinery, one of the largest

2:22

oil facilities on the planet. This isn’t

2:24

precision military targeting. This is

2:26

infrastructure annihilation designed to

2:28

collapse the economic foundation of the

2:30

Gulf States. Here’s what the mainstream

2:32

media isn’t telling you. The Gulf States

2:35

never wanted this war. Oman was

2:37

mediating peace talks between the US and

2:40

Iran in February. Their foreign minister

2:42

said peace was within reach. Then Trump

2:45

launched the strikes. Anyway, now the

2:47

UAE has recalled its ambassador from

2:49

Israel. That’s a massive diplomatic

2:51

signal. Saudi Arabia is furious. Qatar

2:54

shot down two Iranian jets, but is

2:56

publicly staying neutral. Why? Because

2:58

these countries understand something

3:00

Washington doesn’t. Iran’s strategy

3:02

isn’t to defeat the US military

3:04

conventionally. It’s to make the cost of

3:06

defending the Gulf States economically

3:08

unbearable. It’s to turn America’s

3:10

allies into liabilities. Let me break

3:13

down the game theory here. Trump has two

3:16

choices. Option one, continue the war

3:18

and protect the Gulf States. This

3:21

requires an endless supply of

3:22

interceptors that don’t exist.

3:24

Production can’t scale fast enough. The

3:27

industrial base isn’t there. So, you

3:29

either let Iranian missiles through and

3:31

watch critical infrastructure burn, or

3:33

you deploy ground troops to occupy Iran

3:36

and eliminate the missile threat at the

3:38

source. But ground troops require

3:40

congressional approval, which won’t

3:42

come. 78% of Americans opposed the

3:45

initial strikes. The number opposing

3:47

invasion would be even higher, probably

3:50

85 to 90%. Option two, withdraw. Declare

3:54

some kind of victory, blame the Gulf

3:56

States for not fighting hard enough, and

3:58

pull out. Trump already started setting

4:00

this up on March 1st. He said the

4:02

operation would be completed within 4

4:04

weeks. That’s not confidence. That’s

4:06

setting a timeline for withdrawal.

4:08

That’s preparing the American public for

4:10

retreat. Now, why did Trump do this in

4:12

the first place if the math was always

4:14

against him? Here’s where personal

4:15

incentives override national strategy.

4:18

Saudi Arabia invested $2 billion in

4:20

Jared Kushner’s private equity fund. 2

4:23

billion. That’s a bribe. In exchange for

4:25

what? For Trump being aggressive against

4:28

Iran. The Saudis want regime change.

4:31

They see Iran as an existential threat

4:33

to their power structure. So, they’re

4:35

paying Trump to attack Iran. Miriam Adelson,

4:38

a major pro-Israel billionaire, has

4:41

pledged $250 million if Trump runs for a

4:44

third term. These aren’t campaign

4:46

donations. These are payments for

4:48

policy. Trump personally benefits from

4:50

this war, even if America doesn’t. He

4:52

gets billions in financial support. He

4:54

gets political backing for extending his

4:57

power. And here’s another benefit for

4:58

Trump personally. If the war goes badly

5:00

and he needs emergency powers, he can

5:03

delay elections. He can consolidate

5:05

executive authority. He can suppress

5:07

opposition by calling them unpatriotic

5:09

during wartime. So even if this war is a

5:12

disaster for America, it might help

5:14

Trump personally stay in power. Does

5:16

that make sense? People don’t want to

5:18

believe this because it suggests leaders

5:20

make decisions that harm their countries

5:22

for personal gain. But this is exactly

5:24

what happened in Iraq in 2003. George W.

5:26

Bush ignored intelligence reports that

5:29

said there were no weapons of mass

5:30

destruction. He invaded anyway. Why?

5:33

Because it helped him politically. The

5:36

Iraq war was sold as regime change

5:38

through shock and awe. We’ll decapitate

5:41

Saddam’s regime. Destroy his military in

5:43

3 weeks and democracy will flourish. And

5:46

we did decapitate the regime. We killed

5:48

Saddam. We destroyed the Iraqi army in

5:50

21 days. Mission accomplished, right?

5:52

Then we spent 20 years fighting an

5:54

insurgency that cost 2 trillion and over

5:56

4,000 American lives. Because regime

5:58

decapitation doesn’t end wars. It just

6:01

creates power vacuums that get filled by

6:03

worse actors. And that’s exactly what’s

6:05

happening in Iran right now. Khamenei is

6:07

dead, but the IRGC isn’t. Iran’s missile

6:10

production facilities aren’t. The

6:12

revolutionary ideology that’s been

6:14

building for 40 years isn’t. You can’t

6:17

bomb away a government structure that’s

6:19

been preparing for this exact war for

6:21

two decades. Iran knew this was coming.

6:23

They’ve been studying US military

6:25

doctrine since 2003. They watched what

6:28

happened in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan.

6:30

They learned that survival requires

6:32

asymmetric capabilities that can’t be

6:35

destroyed by air power alone. And they

6:37

built exactly that. Underground missile

6:40

factories, distributed command and

6:41

control, proxy forces across the region.

6:44

You’re not fighting a conventional

6:46

military. You’re fighting a distributed

6:48

network designed specifically to survive

6:50

American shock and awe. Here’s the

6:52

nightmare scenario that’s already

6:54

unfolding. The Gulf States are getting

6:56

pounded by Iranian missiles. Their

6:58

interceptor stockpiles are running dry.

7:01

Their economies are collapsing because

7:03

airspace is closed. Airports are

7:05

damaged. Oil facilities are burning.

7:07

Insurance rates for shipping in the

7:08

Persian Gulf have tripled. Foreign

7:10

investors are pulling out. The safe

7:12

haven reputation of Dubai is destroyed.

7:14

So, the Gulf States are going to demand

7:16

that the United States either pay Iran

7:18

to stop. We’re talking about trillions

7:20

in reparations and reconstruction or

7:22

send ground troops to finish the job.

7:24

Binary choice. Money or boots on the

7:26

ground. And the United States can’t do

7:28

either. There’s no political will for

7:30

ground invasion. The American people

7:32

won’t support it. Congress won’t

7:34

authorize it. And there’s no money for

7:35

reparations because the US economy

7:37

itself is fragile. Debt is at record

7:40

highs. A prolonged war would trigger

7:41

recession. So, the only option left is

7:44

withdrawal. And when the United States

7:46

withdraws, who’s left holding the bag?

7:48

Israel. Israel, which is already running

7:50

low on Arrow interceptors. Israel, which

7:53

has called up 70,000 reservists after

7:56

fighting in Gaza for over a year and a

7:58

half. Israel, whose economy can’t

8:00

sustain a prolonged war against an

8:03

adversary the size of Iran. Israel,

8:05

which is 1,600 km away from Iran with no

8:08

land border, meaning every operation

8:10

requires air power or long range

8:12

missiles. Trump will pull out, blame the

8:14

Gulf states for inadequate support, and

8:16

leave Israel to face Iran alone. And

8:18

Israel can’t win that fight. They can

8:20

bomb Tehran, they can kill leaders, but

8:22

they can’t occupy Iran. They can’t stop

8:25

the missiles. And eventually, the

8:26

interceptor stockpiles run out. This is

8:28

the endgame. Now, some people will say,

8:30

“But we have air superiority. Israeli

8:32

jets are operating over Tehran in

8:34

daylight. We’ve destroyed 40% of Iran’s

8:37

ballistic missile launchers. We control

8:39

the skies. But air superiority doesn’t

8:42

matter if you can’t stop the missiles

8:43

that are already in the air. And it

8:45

doesn’t matter if Iran can still produce

8:47

100 new missiles every month while you

8:50

can only produce seven interceptors.

8:52

This is a war of attrition and the math

8:54

has already decided the outcome.

8:55

…

——

* Dr. Postol, at 15:52, goes into extensive criticisms of political ‘scientists’ at Stanford and other leading universities who shut him out because they refuse to engage with, much less to debate with Postol, the physical evidences; he challenges these fraudulent ‘scientists’ — some associated with the prestigious Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, which I have previously exposed as “a U.S. propaganda operation instead of independent” — to debate with him, but they refuse; they don’t want to get into that (the actual evidences). If Trump is relying upon such frauds as being his ‘experts’, then it’s easy to understand how Trump can make, and actually believe in, the types of policies he does. The professionals in political science (the interpretive or theoretical, not the empirical, scientific, end of it) should be calling themselves politicized ‘scientists’, and their students are studying under such ‘experts’, not in any real science.

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Investigative historian Eric Zuesse’s latest book, AMERICA’S EMPIRE OF EVIL: Hitler’s Posthumous Victory, and Why the Social Sciences Need to Change, is about how America took over the world after World War II in order to enslave it to U.S.-and-allied billionaires. Their cartels extract the world’s wealth by control of not only their ‘news’ media but the social ‘sciences’ — duping the public.