Mercouris says Syria will now be controlled by Erdogan, Jolani is fronting for Erdogan, Russia is leaving Syria, Israel is the big winner, Iran & Kurds the biggest losers.
18 December 2024, by Eric Zuesse. (All of my recent articles can be seen here.)
On December 18th, Alexander Mercouris, who has the best predictive record on the widest range of international-relations issues, headlined his 12-minute summary analysis on Syria, “Russian bases in Syria. Erdogan in control”, and he portrayed the situation as being a probably uncontrollable chaos, but nonetheless dominated by Turkey’s President Erdogan, upon whom the Al Qaeda leader in Syria, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, depended the most in order to win whatever control of Syria he now has after defeating Syria’s former Government. Erdogan’s top objective is to defeat the U.S.-backed Kurds in Syria, whom Erdogan fears because they might join with the PKK Kurds in Turkey so as to carve out a Kurdistan from both countries. Israel is the big winner because it is taking all of Syria’s Golan Heights now, and because the former flow of weapons from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon for Hezbollah has now been cut off so that Israel will be able to take whatever it wants in Lebanon. Russia is conducting “a very orderly withdrawal, in contrast to the chaotic disorganized withdrawal that the Americans carried out in Afghanistan back in 2021.” He says that Jolani was wanting the Russians to stay but didn’t offer terms that were acceptable to him and so this organized peaceful withdrawal has been agreed upon and is now occurring. Israel is preparing to invade Iran; Turkey is preparing to invade the Kurdish part of Syria; Iran is deepening its relationship with Russia. The Kurds are hoping that America’s forces will stay in order to protect them from the invasion that Turkey is preparing.
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Investigative historian Eric Zuesse’s latest book, AMERICA’S EMPIRE OF EVIL: Hitler’s Posthumous Victory, and Why the Social Sciences Need to Change, is about how America took over the world after World War II in order to enslave it to U.S.-and-allied billionaires. Their cartels extract the world’s wealth by control of not only their ‘news’ media but the social ‘sciences’ — duping the public.
It is hard to see how Israel is a winner. It is one thing to take a slab of land in the midst of chaos and quite another to secure and hold it securely. Israel cannot even hold Palestine securely so how is it going to hold more of Syria?
As to it being a loss for Iran, again, why would that be? It seems unlikely given the uncertainty in Syria for so long that the Iranians would have invested so much of their power in the State, and open themselves to being weakened by its loss.
Quote: and because the former flow of weapons from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon for Hezbollah has now been cut off so that Israel will be able to take whatever it wants in Lebanon.
As someone said, and I forget who, the facts on the ground are so fluid and corrupt that there is no way Israel could totally control what goes through Syria or gets to Lebanon. And, given human nature and ingenuity, if the Syria corridor was closed then other corridors would be found. It all seems a bit simplistic to believe that,
a. Israel controls enough of Syria and can continue to do so to ensure no weapons get to Lebanon
b. Israel can control the many different groups who have taken control in Syria
c. Israel can do whatever it wants in Lebanon because for a time, few or no weapons are coming through Syria...
d. Israel can control the Syrians it holds under occupation
e. How can Israel control the Turks who also want to control Syria, as they once formerly did, and who are organised and a strong military force, and they detest the Israelis? The Turkish army has always had a very effective military.
Turkey has one of the best armies in the Middle East. Israel's capacity to put feet on the ground is minimal by comparison. And its military is seriously debased and incompetent with their major experience attacking women, children, the old, sick, crippled and powerless. This is why they have failed to rout either Hamas or Hezbollah. More critical, Turkey can put soldiers in the field without destroying its economy and Israel cannot.
I mean, the Americans cannot even control a destroyed Iraq so why or how could Israel, even with American help, be able to control Syria?