Scott Ritter and Larry Johnson say Iran is headed for victory, and Trump-Netanyahu will seek face-saving way to end the war.

1 March 2026, by Eric Zuesse. (All of my recent articles can be seen here.)

Scott Ritter says that in about two weeks, Trump will seek a negotiated end to the war, and that Russia and China will urge Iran to agree to such a face-saving-for-Trump end of this war. Larry Johnson explains why the U.S. and Israel are heading for defeat in this war, in about two weeks.

“Scott Ritter: Iran’s Hypersonic Missiles DEVASTATE Tel Aviv & Haifa”

1 March 2026, Danny Haiphong

1:45:15 - 1:50:00

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[Since it’s only five minutes, I suggest clicking onto it.]

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“Larry Johnson: The U.S. Will Exhaust Itself & Lose War Against Iran”

28 February 2026, Glenn Diesen

0:00

DIESEN: Welcome back. We are joined by Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst uh to

0:06

discuss the war that has been launched [by Israel and America] against Iran. So, thank you for coming

0:11

on. Uh as an analyst, uh how solid do you think Trump’s intelligence has been

0:18

on Iran in terms of Iran’s capabilities? Uh, how they’re prepared to use those

0:23

capabilities, the I guess the likelihood of succeeding uh in this war. JOHNSON: Uh, [it] is one

0:29

of two things. Either the CIA lied to Trump

0:36

um about Iran’s capabilities and Trump believed it, or it’s possible the CIA

0:43

actually told Trump the truth and he ignored it. But, uh, and so I I unfortunately I’m not

0:50

privy to what the current current real world um briefings are. I would note

0:56

that a primary source for US human intelligence comes out of Israel through

1:03

what’s known as liaison reporting. And I’m basing, I base one of my

1:09

conclusions, off of the recent article by Seymour Hirsch regarding Iran.

1:15

It was, I mean, it was it was just rife with nonsense. But it was what he was

1:21

accurately reporting what he was being told. And one of the things [Hirsch was] told was that uh Iran’s ballistic

1:28

missile capability had been virtually wiped out. And I’m going [to say], you know, [it’s] absolutely not [true].

1:35

I’ve I’ve maintained all along that I think Iran’s ballistic missile capability right now exceeds 10,000

1:43

missiles. Uh you know, they’ve had 18 different varieties. And these are, you

1:48

know, underground shelters. They’re mobile launchers. mobile launchers are very very very

1:55

difficult to find and destroy and so and the storage units are way below ground

2:01

and so the United States has not unleashed uh the kind of bunker busters that would be required to try to seal up

2:08

those tunnels but [and] my understanding is there’s not just one entry and exit point, there are multiple entry and exit

2:14

points, so the the United States miscalculated, well, what Iran’s response would be. And

2:22

they were part of the US impression or belief, [which] is that there was a simmering

2:29

sea of disagreement with the Ayatollah and that

2:34

80% of the population opposed the Islamic regime,

2:40

and that all we had to do was just give it a slight push and the regime would

2:45

collapse. Well, uh, we neglected to learn the lesson that we, uh, that some of us

2:53

learned after the attacks on 9/11. That was viewed as an external attack, as a

2:58

surprise attack, as an illegal attack. And it united the American people, at least temporarily. Partisan dis

3:05

differences really largely disappeared there for a period of time. And then, you know, George W. Bush pissed that

3:12

opportunity away by starting a war with uh, Iraq. So what has happened now in

3:18

Iran, it’s unified the population in a way that uh that hasn’t been unified

3:23

since the attacks of last June. So this is uh this is another area of

3:28

miscalculation. A a third area of miscalculation that the United States was going to be

3:35

able to quickly eliminate the Iranian threat and quickly bring military

3:41

pressure that would force Iran to surrender. Becomes, oh, please stop. we give up.

3:47

They didn’t pay they didn’t pay attention to what Iran did with Iraq. You know, Iraq attacked Iran back in

3:53

1980. Nine-year war, 10-year war, went on hundreds of thousands of dead Iranians.

4:00

They didn’t give up. They continued to fight. Uh, and they fought till there was actually a negotiated settlement

4:06

brought about. That’s what they’re going to continue to do this time. Only this time, they they,

4:12

you know, they got some powerful leverage. They’ve now closed the straight of Hormuz. Good luck trying to get that open. We

4:19

already saw the the power of the US Navy who they’ve now got ships bottled up in

4:26

the Persian Gulf that can’t get out and the the main port in Bahrain has been

4:32

destroyed or significantly damaged. So this is uh you know Iran right now is

4:40

controlling 21 keeping 21% of the world’s oil from going out

4:45

and that’s that’s going to have e economic repercussions. China you know I think really anticipated this. They’ve

4:52

been buying up significant stores of oil over the last month. But uh I still

4:58

don’t think anybody anticipated that the United States and Israel would be so crazy as to start this war with uh Iran

5:07

sitting on a significant stash of ballistic missiles and drones and you

5:13

know they’re fighting in their own backyard. The United States is has to depend upon foreign bases and and when

5:21

they put these planes in these and in Saudi Arabia or Jordan they’re quite vulnerable.

5:27

and and and that’s where right now over the last 20, you know, this has been ongoing now for about 12 hours. I mean,

5:34

think about that. This is not like this has been a a week already. And in those

5:39

12 hours, Iran has done significant damage to uh to the US military presence in the

5:47

Persian Gulf to to the point now Saudi Arabia is declaring war. Syria is

5:53

declaring war. This is this is really rich. this this terrorist murderer Al-Sharra who’s dressed up now

6:01

in the Brooks Brother suit is I mean he’s he’s literally killed civilians

6:06

chopped their heads off, is is decrying the aggression of Iran.

6:13

I mean he’s just all he is is another whore of the West.

6:21

DIESEN: But it’s been a well a hell of a first day though as you said. Yeah, the attacks began early this morning and

6:28

uh and of course Iran has been hit pretty hard but Iran is also retaliating

6:35

in their big way. So uh you we’ve seen Jordan hits Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain has been hit a

6:43

lot especially in the evening now. Uh Israel as well they close as you said the straight of Hormuz. Uh again, it’s

6:51

too early to say, but um how do you see the war going so far? JOHNSON: I mean, as for a

6:57

first day u summary, well, it’s it’s going to go like it did in June with uh

7:04

Iran will continue to fire missiles and drones. They will use the older

7:10

stuff up, the one that’s less effective. They’ll use that up first and it’ll be used to draw out draw uh Israeli and US

7:19

air defense systems out because uh the one vulnerability both Israel and the

7:25

United States face is that for the the basis of the Iron Dome or the Patriot

7:33

Missile Battery or the THAAD is that they’ve got to fire at least two

7:38

missiles out in order to bring one incoming missile down or even one drone.

7:47

So, uh they’ve got the problem that they only produce 800 of those a year. I’ve

7:54

heard the number 700, but let’s just say it’s 800. So if they’re firing two at every

8:00

missile inbound, once um once Iran fires

8:06

400 missiles and drones, which they’re quite capable of doing, you’ve now

8:11

exhausted a year’s supply of Patriot or THAAD missiles. There even fewer.

8:18

There’s like only I think they only produce like 150 THADs on average. So the the the US and

8:26

Israel, if this progresses beyond th this week, and the only thing that would keep it from progressing beyond this

8:33

week is if Israel and the United States surrendered, said, “Okay, we give up. Let’s stop the

8:39

war. We’re suffering too many losses.” Well, that’s not going to happen. So the war will continue. the reserves, the

8:47

stores of the US and Israel will be depleted and this will become a war of attrition.

8:54

And at that point, Trump is going to I he’s got to either stick with it where he’s now broken his

9:01

promise, no new wars, no endless wars in the Middle East, uh or he’s going to have to figure out

9:08

some way to try to quote declare victory and pull out which will leave Israel uh

9:13

completely exposed and deservedly so. So I you know I um

9:22

there’s a possibility for a negotiated settlement but again the terms Iran’s

9:27

going to dictate the terms Iran’s terms will be all sanctions have got to be lifted.

9:34

lift the sanctions, you know, then we got something to talk about. But, uh, you know, closing down the straight of

9:39

Hormuz is a power play. They didn’t they didn’t wait, you know, they didn’t even

9:46

wait 10 hours to do it. They just immediately declared it shut.

9:52

DIESEN: Yeah, I was a bit uh surprised how quickly this was done. I mean, uh, we heard this from the Iranians that this

9:58

is how they would respond if they were attacked. So, so in terms of striking all the US bases in the region, uh

10:05

shutting down the straight of our moves, I mean all of this is what they said they would. So, I guess we shouldn’t be too surprised. But, uh

10:12

where can we es not we where can uh the escalation go from here on on both sides? I mean, what would the Iranians

10:19

look for? Would they could they begin to do they have a possibility of hitting

10:25

the US Navy or is it too far away? Uh how about the economic targets such as

10:31

or oil refineries in Saudi Arabia and such? Do or or would they wait and you

10:36

know hold off these targets uh based on how the Gulf States respond to the attacks? JOHNSON: If if the United States and

10:44

Israel attack oil terminals in Iran, Iran will take out oil terminals in

10:50

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, all of them. They’re not they won’t wait because they’re not going to get in a

10:56

situation where you get to destroy ours and we leave the others intact which service you. Oh no no no no no. Um the

11:04

the United States actually it has limited ability to escalate without

11:09

creating greater risk. You know, right now it’s got two aircraft carriers there and that one the Gerald Ford is well

11:17

overdue to have returned to home port and they’ve got major uh morale problems

11:22

on board apart apart from sewage problems they had. Uh and their their

11:29

role is right now to be basically defensive. The one that is potentially most vulnerable is the Abraham Lincoln

11:35

which is in the Arabian Sea. I don’t know what its precise location is, but there are reports that Iran has already

11:41

targeted with missiles. So, the the what’s curious is, you know, we’re into this now 12 hours, 13 hours uh and

11:49

there’s surely been US casualties, but the Trump administration is trying to keep the lid on those.

11:58

DIESEN: It’s um I am also surprised that they would decided to take this step because

12:04

it seems very unlikely to be able to succeed given um

12:10

the battlefield is uh yeah so confusing so many variables are outside of their

12:16

own control. Uh but um uh but but where where do you think the US will go from

12:22

here on though? Because I don’t think this is what they planned for. They obviously a lot of their Iranian missiles they seem to have gone through

12:29

with some ease. I’ve seen some videos uh which have been posted of uh Patriot

12:36

missiles just well firing into nothingness just missing their

12:41

targets. So something isn’t going as it should. So uh so so what does this leave

12:49

the United States if this turns out uh to to be a real failure? What what what

12:55

can the United States do besides if there’s not that many pathways to escalate? It can’t, you know, capitulate

13:02

either. Where from there? JOHNSON: Yeah. I mean, it it’s going to have they’re going to have to find a a way to

13:08

declare victory and leave because so let’s step back and say, does the United

13:15

States have the industrial capability to start mass-producing air defense

13:21

missiles to to keep the the batteries, the Patriot batteries and THAAD systems

13:27

supplied? The answer to that is no, absolutely not. Because another element in here is the Chinese restrictions on

13:34

rare earth minerals because some of those rare earth minerals go into these missile systems as well. So you got you

13:40

got a a a deficit there. Um can they deploy

13:47

more combat aircraft? They could, to do what? To try to carry out more strikes

13:52

inside Iran and give Iran a greater chance to shoot em down. What look what

13:58

we know from history and far be it for me to tell a history professor like

14:04

yourself this fact but we don’t have a single instance in where air power was

14:09

able to quote win a war you always had to put troops in on the ground um and

14:15

someone said well what about Hiroshima Nagasaki uh Nagasaki and it was uh you know you

14:24

could argue that war was coming to an end anyway Okay. Uh there were other s other signs that the Japanese were

14:30

willing to surrender. But apart, you know, Vietnam, North Korea, World War

14:35

II, Iraq, World War I, Iraq War II, Syria, there’s a limit to air power. And

14:43

so, yeah, you can you can destroy well and Gaza. Look at Gaza. I mean, Israel

14:49

has literally leveled the place. And yet it still can’t get in there and control

14:54

the ground because uh Hamas is there still fighting in the Palestinian Islamic jihad the pitch.

15:01

So uh what about deploying troops? Well, that’s a non-starter. One a ground invasion

15:08

how would they carry how I don’t even begin to contemplate how they could carry out a ground invasion that would

15:14

and the and the lines of communication that would be required to to sustain a

15:20

ground force of say a half a million men invading uh Iran plus we don’t really

15:26

have that many right now we got total army strength is like 472,000 worldwide

15:33

uh so there’s you know there the ultimate extremes s launching a nuclear attack,

15:39

but uh I don’t see Russia and China standing by and saying, “Oh, yeah, that’s okay. Let the Americans get it

15:44

out of their system.” So, I mean, this this has what we’re going to see is

15:50

within two weeks, as we saw last June,

15:55

United States and and Israel are going to run out of gas. They’re not going to be able to sustain the fight, whereas

16:03

Iran will be able to sustain it. They’ll be able to sustain missile launches that will be, you know, the these missile

16:11

launchers are in underground cities. They’re mobile and when they pop out and

16:16

move around the United States, you can’t just park you, it’d be ideal if you could park a drone overhead and say, “Okay, here’s one now.” And it’s XYZ

16:23

coordinate, but we weren’t even able to do that with the Houthies.

16:28

So, it it’s far more difficult, far more challenging with Iran.

16:34

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MY COMMENT:

Those opinions are opposite to the ones that are being supplied by the Israel-U.S. empire’s media, which are designed so as to fool their public to believe that this Israeli-U.S. invasion is freeing the Iranian people from a tyranny they want to overthrow, such as the 2 March 2026 “Analysis by Nick Paton Walsh” on CNN, after the news that Ayatollah Khamenei is dead, which ‘news’ article contains, for examples, the following statements: “this moment of relief for many repressed Iranians” “His [Khamenei’s] removal has sparked celebrations in Tehran.” “For 47 years, a theocracy has turned into an autocracy and kleptocracy.” “its economy ravaged – by years of civil conflict.” “Is it possible a consensus emerges that, to endure, the autocracy must make peace with the US and the region?” “Reza Pahlavi, heir of the long-deposed shah [that the CIA’s coup installed in 1953, to replace Iran’s democratically elected leader], cannot swan into Tehran and pick up the reins without risking an angry IRGC [instead of an outraged Iranian public] trying to kill him.” “Trump’s … allergy to protracted military involvement simply reinforce this risk [and] … has … kept his goals slim and achievable.” and “The superior technology, intelligence and firepower of the United States and Israel enabled them to conjure a swift and simple solution to their enduring Iran problem.”

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Investigative historian Eric Zuesse’s latest book, AMERICA’S EMPIRE OF EVIL: Hitler’s Posthumous Victory, and Why the Social Sciences Need to Change, is about how America took over the world after World War II in order to enslave it to U.S.-and-allied billionaires. Their cartels extract the world’s wealth by control of not only their ‘news’ media but the social ‘sciences’ — duping the public.